Oregon Perception: Portland small companies nonetheless anticipate an extended recession

Right here is The Oregonian’s weekly take a look at the numbers behind the state’s financial system. View previous installments right here.

Small companies within the Portland space entered 2020 with a grim outlook for the yr, with most anticipating the coronavirus recession would final into summer time.

That’s in line with a daily monitoring survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, which has been gauging how small companies really feel about their financial outlook since April.

The January survey discovered half companies within the Portland space (together with these in Vancouver, Beaverton, Hillsboro and different close by suburbs) believed the recession would final no less than six extra months. Almost a 3rd described COVID-19 as having a “giant unfavorable impact” on them.

January’s outcomes are roughly in step with survey outcomes from final summer time. At the moment, although, Portland was an outlier – most metro areas anticipated a considerably shorter, considerably much less extreme recession.

Now, a lot of the remainder of the nation is coming round to Portland’s mind-set.

The latest survey concluded that 46% anticipate an extended recession, on common, only a few proportion factors decrease than what Portland companies’ forecast. And 31% say they’re struggling giant results.

Nationally, the states and districts reporting essentially the most extreme financial results within the Census’ January survey are Washington, D.C., New York, Alaska, California, Rhode Island, New Mexico and New Jersey.

(For context, the states with essentially the most deaths per capita are New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Rhode Island and South Dakota and Connecticut. Oregon deaths per capita rank No. 49 amongst 56 states and territories, in line with The New York Instances)

January’s survey got here amid a extreme spike in COVID-19 infections in Oregon – and throughout the nation – and stringent enterprise restrictions that compelled most eating places to cease indoor service and most gyms to cease permitting indoor exercises.

Infections have eased enormously because the January survey, with Oregon hospitalizations and deaths dropping to their lowest factors in months. The state has subsequently relaxed enterprise restrictions, although occupancy remains to be restricted.

The continued vaccine rollout holds promise that these tendencies might proceed – although mutant variations of the coronavirus might push an infection charges again up earlier than vaccinations are widespread.

— Mike Rogoway | mrogoway@oregonian.com | twitter: @rogoway |

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